Looking to the next billion internet users

The internet is growing at an annualized rate of 18% and now has one billion users, says web usability guru Jakob Nielsen. A second billion users will follow in the next ten years, mostly in Asia, bringing a dramatic change in worldwide usability needs.

Nielsen's latest Alertbox report yesterday is packed with useful information and fascinating statistics on the growth of the internet and what that means for literally every person on this planet.

Highlights:

- According to Morgan Stanley estimates, 36% of internet users are now in Asia and 24% are in Europe. Only 23% of users are in North America. [What about Latin America? Africa? Some ideas of stats for those geographies here.]

- It took 36 years for the internet to get its first billion users. The second billion will probably be added by 2015, ie, in just ten years; most of these new users will be in Asia. The third billion will be harder, and might not be reached until 2040.

- Overall, the internet's growth has been truly remarkable. Ten years ago, the 'net was mostly used by geeks; now it's the default way to do business in many countries. In Nielsen's US and European B2B studies, many business professionals said they visit a company's website as the first step in researching potential vendors.

- The billion-user internet is a highly diverse environment that has moved far beyond the elite in Silicon Valley and other global technology hubs. There are hundreds of millions of old people online, and there are even more users without fancy graduate degrees. Users are not like you, and the difference between elite and mainstream users is getting bigger every day.

- US market share and Silicon Valley buzz will become less important than international use as the metric for judging the potential of companies and technologies. The Mac, for example, already matters less than you think. Although it has a prominent role in the US, it's hard to refer to a company with single-digit market share as "dominant." In Asia, the Mac is practically nonexistent.

And Nielsen's concluding point:

Putting aside the details of how to make the multi-billion-user Web work, the very fact that it's realistic to expect a second billion users points to interactive media's compelling value. People all over the world are experiencing unprecedented levels of empowerment: being able to do things is why the Web has grown so fast, and will continue to grow for years to come.

Read the full report.